Aug 28

• Copper’s Record Surge: Driven by “tariff roulette,” Comex copper futures surged toward $14,830 per tonne, while LME copper closed at record highs above $14,250. Traders are aggressively importing refined copper into the U.S. ahead of the Trump Administration’s impending review of Section 232 duties (which could impose steep tariffs by 2027/2028). This stockpiling has transformed what analysts projected as a 639,000-tonne global surplus into an immediate market deficit.

• Aluminum’s Looming Deficit: Aluminum prices remain highly supported, with major financial institutions like J.P. Morgan forecasting LME prices to hit $3,800 per metric ton in Q3 2026. The upside pressure is twofold: ongoing shipping bottlenecks through the Strait of Hormuz and China’s strict, self-imposed 45 million metric ton primary aluminum capacity cap.

• Export Strategy Focus: For clients exporting refined copper and aluminum, the market remains in a strong seller’s position. Prioritize immediate spot-market sales into North America to capture pre-tariff premiums, while maintaining long-term aluminum supply contracts in Europe where supply risks remain elevated.