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Copper & Aluminum: Supply Shocks and Export Halts

Aug 7

Copper Hits New Highs: LME copper futures have surged past $14,000/ton, marking the strongest weekly gain in three months. A major catalyst for this tightening is the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) officially halting exports of copper and cobalt concentrates, enforcing a mandate for domestic processing.

Refining Bottlenecks: Escalating tensions in the Middle East have caused a global shortage of sulfuric acid—a critical chemical used in copper refining. This is severely constraining refined copper output globally, keeping export premiums exceptionally high.

Aluminum Momentum: Aluminum prices are holding firmly above $3,200/ton. With China maintaining its production cap at 45 million tons, Asian supply remains tight. Furthermore, due to copper’s surging costs, manufacturers are increasingly substituting aluminum for copper, further boosting global demand.

Export Strategy Focus: Exporters should anticipate prolonged structural shortages in both copper and aluminum. Securing reliable freight lines and capitalizing on the high premium for processed copper and aluminum goods will yield significant margins.

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